Don't Bail GM Out

Please understand that what I am about to say pains me greatly.

I have always been a proponent of American made cars - specifically GM, I don't have any particular affinity for Ford or Chrysler (though each produces or has produced vehicles of merit in specific instances). From the time I was born my parents drove GM vehicles - with 2 exceptions (a 1996 Jeep Cherokee and a 1974 AMC Jeep CJ-5). My parents both drive GM vehicles to this day (dad drives a 3/4-Ton GMC truck - Z71, Duramax; mom drives a Grand Prix GXP).

My first, second, and third vehicles (not counting my days driving the previously mentioned 1974 Jeep) were all made by GM (all were/are Pontiacs - '96 Grand Prix GTP, '01 Trans Am WS-6, '02 Firehawk Trans Am). My current dream car is made by GM - 2009 Z06 Corvette. When I watch NASCAR, you'll notice my favorite drivers all drive GM products (in as much as any NSCS car is really a product of a manufacturer).

I give you all of those details that no one cares about except me so that when I say what I'm about to say you'll understand the internal dissonance it creates.

In recent days talks of a GM and Chrysler merger have been all over business news. These discussions don't particularly excite me, but whatever. In the last couple of days news has surfaced that these two manufacturers are seeking billions in government bailouts in order to merge and survive. Now I'm mad.

In general I'm against government bailouts anyway. But this one is going to really irritate me because it is doomed to failure from the word go. Why?

Becuase neither of these companies (alone or together) is capable of being profitable. Yes, you read that right. In their current form, with their current business model, and accounting for their current business environment neither is going to survive. Why?

Two reasons:

1. The sheer dollar value of what they owe in retirement benefits to current and future retirees cannot be supported by firms of their current size. It's the same issue as Social Security is facing...sort of. Back in the good old days for GM they had a lot more workers than retirees, so meeting demands for retirement benefits wasn't a problem. But time and competition have forced work force cuts so there are now far fewer paying into the system than drawing out. And, geniuses that they are, they didn't fund the plan sufficiently back when those people were working to have the money available later.

2. Unions. GM's (as well as the other automakers) work force is largely unionized and has been for years. And those workers enjoy great wages and benefits that almost no one else in the US gets (their medical coverage while working and in retirement is second to none). The unions contributed to the under-funding issue I described above by continually demanding more, but pose an even greater threat going forward. The union contracts in place now make it difficult or impossible for GM (or Chrysler or Ford) to effectively make needed changes to production, close plants, etc. in order to adapt to the current situation and changes in demand. In some cases, when jobs are cut, workers are still paid because of their union contracts. Add to all that, the cost of this unionized labor force makes it impossible for GM to make money on the cars it sells in many cases. That's right, it's actually possible to buy a new GM vehicle and if you know what you're doing pay less than the real cost to produce that vehicle. That's a business model problem if I ever saw one.

The US government needs to let GM (and the other automakers) fail, fold, file for bankruptcy, pick your own term here. Reason?

That's the only way to break the unions. And sadly, breaking the unions is the only way an American automaker can ever truly be a profitable enterprise again.

As I stated previously, I'm generally against bailouts, but at least with most financial services firms, if done correctly and making the big assumption they are managed properly, they have a viable business model. The US automakers do not.

The next sector that is going to go begging to the government is going to be the airlines. Lower oil prices may help them for a short time, but lower demand is ultimately going to drive them to the brink. When they start asking for a bailout the government's answer needs to be "no". They have the same problems as the automakers - at least on the union front, I'm less familiar with how their retirement program funding is doing.

In the interest of full disclosure, my wife is a member of MSTA, which is a teacher's union. I'm not in favor of that organization or the borderline coercive practices used to get her to join. She is a member for one reason - the insurance they provide in the event she were to be sued for some reason. Well, that and it gets her in to most road games for free.

Additionally, I want to be clear my comments above are strictly from my perspective and are not intended to assess the emotional or personal toll that what I'm suggesting might have on those who might lose their jobs. Those are real issues that I don't intend to gloss over, but it is my opinion that propping up a business that isn't viable is going to cost more than helping meet the needs of those families displaced by the loss of their job in the short-term while they find a new job.

Final thought: I don't want GM to fail. I just don't see anyway that it can be a viable business longterm without a major restructuring effort that can only take place on the other side of a bankruptcy, etc.

Week 9: WC v. Nevada

Globe Article

Let's be honest, after last week's triumph over Carthage this week was bound to pale in comparison - even being senior night. But the Cards definitely didn't have a let down scoring 45 points in the first half and 59 total (easily their biggest outburst of the season). There wasn't much Nevada could do to slow the Cards (who started all their seniors and played many of the starters only sparingly) down along the way. We pretty much saw what we expected in this match up.

The best play of the night - which apparently both news stations missed, because they'd have been nuts not to include it in their highlights and neither did - happened in the first half when Braxton Baker fumbled after a short gain only to have Mack Kyle pick the ball up in stride and streak 30+ yards into the end zone. From the stands it looked like it would roll out of bounds when Kyle came out of nowhere after a Nevada player caused the ball to pop up just high enough for Kyle to scoop it up at full speed. You never want to see the fumble, but it was a great recovery and a heads up play by Kyle who was clearly down the field following the play even after he handed it off.

On the brother-in-law front, Patrick threw a touchdown pass and had a couple of other nice completions in the game. He didn't see as much play on defense as I had hoped - likely because of it being senior night (the other 2 corners are both seniors) and by the time the coaches pulled the seniors they went straight to the JV crew for mop-up duty. Hopefully we'll see Pat on D more Thursday night at Carl.

Carthage hammered CJ, so WC has now clinched the district and a home game (and a second if they win the first) regardless of the outcome against CJ (not that anyone is expecting CJ to pose a serious threat unless WC has a major letdown). Neosho took care of Republic, staying on pace to win 4A-11 and host Carthage in the first round - sending Branson back to WC for round 1.

On another front, a couple of college football comments:
- I don't care for Ohio State particularly and I have no beef with Joe Paterno, but I'm certainly hoping Ohio State takes care of this Penn State national title shot issue for me tonight. Seriously, no seriously they don't deserve it.
- I'm not holding my breath for my Pokes - mostly doing expectation management. If it gets too ugly you may find me out in my yard mowing before it's over. I hope it doesn't come to that.

Week 8 - WC at Carthage

This was the one we'd all been waiting on. For most of season the talk had been that Carthage would hammer WC - that their offense was just too good. Early results and comparative scores lent credence to that perspective as Carthage put up huge numbers against their COC opponents.

Then there was Branson. The Pirates did to Carthage what no one else had - they hit them in the mouth (to use football terminology). Branson got physical with Carthage, put pressure on Trey Derryberry and shut the Tigers down. Ask my wife, I had been saying all along (and for 3 seasons now) that if you can hit Derryberry he'll quit or at least get flustered and stop playing very well. And we did see him simply lay down a couple of times Friday night to avoid getting hit.

So finally after too much talk, twice as many fans as Baker Stadium was designed for piled in for the showdown. The first 4 minutes predicted a shootout of legendary proportions. WC easily drove the ball into the end zone only to have Carthage go 80 yards on their first play from scrimmage. With 8:15 remaining in the first we'd learned 2 things: 1. Carthage couldn't handle WC up front and 2. WC is still susceptible to the pass.

From there we saw what we've come to expect from the Cards when it comes time to play Carthage - deliveries under pressure. WC had to punt on their next possession, but after a fortunate bounce off the shoulder pads of a Tiger led to an interception, WC began putting up points on long drives, killing the clock, and keeping the Tiger offense...(I'd say off the field, but this is high school so the same guys all play defense too)...busy defending a running attack they wanted none of.

Late in the first half, Mack Kyle (WC QB) took it 56 yards to the house - leaving Carthage about 90 seconds to try to cut into the 28-7 lead. The run was reminiscent of his much longer run late in WC's playoff loss at Carthage last year - that happened with a little too much time left on the clock. The run itself was impressive as Kyle stiff-armed one defender, outran a couple of others before cutting back to get into the end zone. This time, WC held and Carthage did not score to close out the half. This was definitely a different night.

After the longest halftime I can remember play resumed and WC continued its assault on the clock, scoring once and continuing to shut Carthage down. In the fourth quarter, what looked to be a 6th scoring drive was stopped by an interception when Kyle tried to dump a short pass over the Tigers defensive line and one of them managed to jump up and grab the floating pass. Both offenses continued to move the ball, but could not capitalize. WC seemed content - as they usually are - to let Carthage move the ball down to about the WC 20 and then use the sidelines and end zone as extra defenders (limiting play calling options) before shutting the Tigers down. The game ended at about the WC 15 with Carthage on the march, but unable to put it in the end zone. Final score 35-7 (with the 7 coming on Carthage's first play from scrimmage).

Some observations and commentary:

- Having watched several WC v. Carthage games now - and most of them at least billed to be huge games (only a few have lived up to that) - I've come to a conclusion. There is something about the Carthage defense that leads to WC QBs running wild. Carthage match ups either just bring out the best ground game WC QBs have to offer or it's a match up issue - I'm not sure which. Kyle ran for over 100 yards last night and 3 TDs - most of the year he's been content to hand it off to Braxton Baker and Seth Helton (Baker did have over 200 yards rushing and 2 TDs, but Helton only racked up 50 or so yards). Last year in the playoffs Kyle had a big game running the ball. Go back to Collin Howard, he racked up the rushing yards against Carthage. And before him? Brayden Drake (this is Patrick Drake's brother and also my brother-in-law) had big rushing games against the Tigers back in his day as well. I'm all for the QB leading the charge. If I were guessing I think what it amounts to is how Carthage tries to defend the veer-option attack - accounting for the running backs first, leaving the QB to carry it. If WC QBs weren't such capable ball carriers that might be a good approach, but it doesn't seem to work when the guy under center knows how to run.

- I want to be less than tacky here, but Carthage really needs to sink some money into their stadium if they want to continue to host big games. The visitor's seating is about 1/4 the size that is needed and apparently the home side is too small as well - their fans sit all over the place. The stadium only has one small set of bathrooms - no where near what is needed for a crowd like last night. I've never seen a men's room line that long or slow. I realize Carthage probably doesn't have the fund availability that other schools may and I don't want to be a jerk, it's just hard to go into a stadium like that when you see what other schools are providing for their visitors.

- Last night marked the opening of Missouri Football District play - so everything counts now. As WC was taking down Carthage, Nevada was busy upsetting Carl Junction in the other Class 4-12 matchup. Add to that Neosho taking down Branson in Class 4-11 action. Neither of these was really expected - by me or others I've talked to - and the Branson upset has a big impact on the playoff picture.

- Speaking of, here's the deal. For the first time 2 teams from each district will go to the playoffs - Carthage has to be really happy about that after all those years of being 9-1 and shutout of the playoffs by WC. This adds a round to the playoffs - which is why the season started a week earlier this year - and means that teams now have some control over where they play their first round playoff game. According to the MSHSAA website the district champions will host the second place team from the adjacent district in the first round of the playoffs on November 5th.

If things shake out as I expect them to that would have Branson making a second trip to WC in just 5 weeks (due to their loss to Neosho). Now that certainly could change if Neosho were to lose to someone else in that district, but I don't see that happening (a WC loss to Carl or Nevada would shake that up as well). It also means that Carthage (likely #2 in 4-12 would travel to Neosho in round one). The winner of those 2 games would meet in round two - so that's where the potential for a WC v. Carthage rematch comes in (November 10th, yes, I'm out of town).

The location of that second round game is unclear. I don't know if the host would be the higher seed (if it's a 1 v. 2) or if we go back to the old rules where the district numbers and years come into play - then again, if both teams are from the same district it either has to go to the higher seed or to the team that didn't host in round 1 (which would be a bad choice, particularly if you're talking about a team that beat the other for the right to be the district champion having to travel to that team in the playoffs, but honestly I've never thought the Missouri playoff site selection system made any sense anyway). All that to say this, Cardinal fans, if things shake out the way I see it, we're going to get Carthage again and I'm not sure whether they are coming to us or we're packing into their place again.

The challenge going forward for WC is not to look past Nevada or Carl and avoid an upset. WC now controls their destiny, but it's on them not to have a let-down.

State of the Game - College Football

Yes, as it turns out, I'm an expert on College Football too! Not really, but I do want to see if I can make point here.

I'll be the first to tell you that my Cowboys were lucky to get out of Columbia with a win last Saturday night and honestly, I think they're over-rated for what they've accomplished at #8 this week in the AP poll. That's not to say they aren't that good, but I don't think they've proven themselves yet.

I'll also be the first to say that their only shot at a national title (did I really even utter those words? Yes, but only to make a point, not because I think that is something they can contend for this year) is to run the table. That includes a trip to Austin (to face this week's #1), a trip to Lubbock (current #7 Texas Tech), and a visit from the Sooners (currently #4) between now and the Saturday following Thanksgiving. Mixed in there are a couple of other Big 12 teams that we "should" beat and Baylor, who we should throttle. Then, if all the stars align just the right way and by some miracle we won all of those games we'd have to win the Big 12 Championship game - an almost certain rematch with a really irritated Mizzou (this week's #11). But that's the deal when you start the season outside the top 10 (in our case outside the top 25) and live in the Big 12 South.

For the record, I'm completely okay with the preceding paragraph. If the Cowboys lose a game they should not even be discussed as a title contender.

What I'm not okay with is USC and Penn State being in the driver's seat to a title game. Yes, you read that right, those are the two teams with the best chance at winning out and playing for a title. What's wrong with that you ask? A lot.

USC lost to unranked Oregon State. No offense to the Beavers, but it's not the kind of loss that a team with only one ranked team remaining on their schedule should be able to shake off. Their only important win was at home against an Ohio State team that (and I'm sorry to say this Matt and Aaron) hasn't lived up to its billing this year. USC plays in a joke conference and frankly any loss for them should end all discussion of a title game appearance. They couldn't hack it in the Big 12 south or either division of the SEC.

Penn State. Well, at least they're still undefeated. Who have they played? Wait, no one. They've got to play Ohio State. And who else? I'm drawing a blank. Even undefeated, they don't deserve a shot. The Big 10 (or is it 11) is really weak this year. I'd only retract that if they were undefeated and all teams in both the Big 12 and SEC had at least 1 loss (and even then I don't think they deserve it). Penn State couldn't hack it in the Big 12 south or the SEC either.

Speaking of conference power, a couple of thoughts on that. I will admit that for the last few years the SEC has been the conference to beat. I do think the Big 12 - specifically the south, but certainly Mizzou and Kansas need to be considered in the equation - is tougher than the SEC this year, but it's close. Any team surviving an SEC schedule with 1 loss should get serious BCS consideration.

One other thought on conferences. Any conference without a championship game shouldn't be taken seriously when it comes time to dole out BCS selections - or else championship game results should not be a factor in determining bowl selections. This whole thing where most conferences - and the toughest of the conferences among them - have to play their regular season, then a championship game while others sit around for a month is a joke.

WC v. Branson

Something kind of rare happened this week. The preacher at church stepped on my toes twice in the same week.

Robin was preaching from James 3 on Sunday - Taming the Tongue - which done well is always a topic I'm convicted about.

The second was when Robin commented on this blog pointing out I'd been derelict of my duties to provide commentary about the Webb City Cardinals football season.

My bad.

Sitting in Neosho last Friday night hearing that Branson was physically dominating Carthage - who was supposed to be untouchable - I was very concerned about what the 10/10/08 showdown in Cardinal's Stadium might look like. Since playing out of their minds against Rogers, AR, the Cards had not put together a complete performance and had looked rusty at times against some weaker opponents. I knew we'd have to see the team that went on the road to Harrisonville and welcomed Rogers - and then found ways to beat both if they wanted to beat Branson.

One thing the Cards had struggled with was starting out slow. Not on this Friday night (which I'm told was homecoming, but the coronation was so bad that I think pretty much everyone forgot - really, it was an embarrassing debacle and is what you get when it becomes "Fall" Homecoming instead of "Football" Homecoming).

The Cards forced Branson to go 3 & out on its opening possession and then quickly moved the ball down and scored. On Branson's next possession on 3rd down an interception was returned for another WC touchdown. Branson's third possession was another 3 & out followed by another quick score.

That third score came on a pass play from Mack Kyle to Austin Lepper. I mention this because the ball was behind Austin - who was crossing left to right - but he managed to reach back across his body and grab it. It wasn't quite like Zerkel at CJ a couple of years ago, but it was a great catch. Austin later caught another TD pass and recovered a fumble. He's having a great season.

Webb made it 27-0 in the second quarter before Branson got on the board. From there WC put hit the cruise control button (or so it seemed) and finished the game 34-13.

Some observations:
- WC played a more physical game than we've seen them play and I hope they bring that with them next week to Carthage, because that is a big key to beating the Tigers. This week they had to play that way because Branson was playing very physical football and the Cards were getting hit hard. Their response? Give it right back. As the game went on, the Cards just kept hitting Branson again and again. We saw more highlight reel hits in this game (going both ways) than in any previous game of the season.
- Webb re-emerged as the team we saw early in the season. Sadly this makes me think I've been right that they tend to prepare and play based on what they think their opponent can do. I'd rather see them bring it every week, but at least they have a sense of the big game. Hey, Cards, memo for you: You'd better bring it next week, you can bet Carthage will.
- Cards fans saw something a little different on defense last night. It looked vaguely familiar from years gone by - a number 5 jersey patrolling the secondary. And when this 5 made tackles the last name was even familiar - his older brother wore that number a few years ago and was a standout for the Cards. For the first time this season Patrick Drake played several series on defense (we've seen him in places on spacial teams and offense, but not on defense yet) and seemed to get the hang of it quickly. Drake is 6-2 and athletic, which makes him a tough corner to throw over. Add to that his years of experience playing quarterback and watching his older brother and you can bet he understands the game and has a great sense of where he needs to be. Branson was a good opponent to start out against, they don't throw a ton and playing run-support requires less experience from a corner. Drake seemed eager to prove himself, making several tackles a handful of nice hits. He got hit hard covering a punt, jumped up and went right back at Branson. I'm anxious to see what this looks like going forward, I think he may be a key to helping WC play better in the back-end against teams that are threats to throw the ball (Carthage to name one) - and let's be honest, the secondary has been the Cards weakness on defense this season.


Next week's showdown in Carthage will be an interesting one. If WC comes out like it did last night and plays physical football for 4 quarters Carthage will be hard pressed to beat the Cards. I feel like the WC-Carthage rivalry is taking on a little of the tone that the Bedlam matchup I'm familiar with has (that's what we call it anytime OU and Oklahoma State play one another - doesn't matter if it's football or inner-tube water polo). By that I mean that even if one team has the ability to physically dominate the other, all bets are off and it's likely to be a close game. If there is one game all season Carthage is going to get up for it's WC. I'm not saying WC can or should dominate Carthage and anyone who tells you that (or the opposite) is pretty definitely wrong - at least I don't expect to see that actually happen. I will stand by my previous statement regarding this matchup: If WC can get pressure on and hit the Carthage QB (Derryberry) early they will have a massive advantage and that is their best chance of shutting down a very potent Carthage attack.

Friday night, 7pm, in Carthage. Please stay home so the 25 seats in the visitor's bleachers will be available for the rest of us.